Constitutional Daily

Founding Principles

The Tenure Paradox - Robot pimp

Slap on the Wrist for "Non-Consensual Sex" - Lampshade, Esq.

Intelligence: The Gathering - Graphic and Gratuitous

Grads are the New Illegals - Robot Pimp

Meet Entitlement Eric - Robot Pimp

Wherein I Solve World Peace - Lampshade, Esq.

A Necessary Delusion - Shadow Hand

Do you even need to shave overhead? - Lawyerlite

LSAT Jenga - Publius Picasso

http://www.constitutionaldaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1573:legal-reasoning-redux-5&catid=38:there-and-never-back-again&Itemid=65

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Stop and Frisk: Racist and Sexist Policy is Racist

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A New York Judge has finally slapped down the state's controversial Stop and Frisk policy on grounds that it violated the 4th and 14th Amendments was doubleplus ungood. ABA Journal coverage of the decision points out that racist underovertones to the policy:

In 52 percent of those 4.4 million stops, the person stopped was black, in 31 percent the person was Hispanic, and in 10 percent the person was white. Weapons were seized in 1 percent of the stops of blacks, 1.1 percent of the stops of Hispanics, and 1.4 percent of the stops of whites. Contraband other than weapons was seized in 1.8 percent of the stops of blacks, 1.7 percent of the stops of Hispanics, and 2.3 percent of the stops of whites.

Left out of the ABA Journal's coverage is that 92.8% of people stopped were male. Noticing this oversight, we poked around a few other law blogs to see what was going on in their coverage. Specifically we wanted to see what the coverage was like in feminist spaces since all the rage in feminism these days is about how The PatriarchyTM is also bad for men and feminism helps everyone, so come on, put on your This Is What A Feminist Looks Like t-shirt and become an ally! Nevermind that the label "allies" is necessarily describing someone in terms of otherness.

Predictably, Feminist Legal Theory, a blog run by some professors at UC Davis fails to have a single post discussing stop and frisk, though it has plenty of posts on race issues, BLTGI issues, and a couple on animal abuse. Feminist Law Prawfs, a site which counts virtually every Law and Gender/Women/Feminism professor among its contributors, likewise has no stop and frisk post. It does however have posts on racial discrimination, BLTGI issues, and yes, animal abuse. And that's in spite of its slogan, "Nearly all of us root for fairness, not for our own sex."

Of course some people will argue that it's okay to profile men because men are actually more prone towards violent crime -- doing the same for racial minorities is bad though, because the races are equal. (Nevermind that there's a link between poverty and violent crime and between race and poverty.) Stop and frisk is still getting it wrong. Women are stopped only 7% of the time, but are 20% of violent offenders. [BJS, Table 38]

And yet, we've heard no complaints about women being woefully underrepresented in stop and frisk incidents.

Let The Tax Debate Be Held In Secret

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As you may have heard from one of the not-quite-a-handful of media outlets that decided to cover the story, members of Congress working to reform the tax code have decided to conduct their negotiations in secret. [Click here for Daily Show coverage. We removed the video due to autoplay problems.]

Conducting major policy debates in secret strikes many people the wrong way, and rightfully so. Keeping the legislative process in the dark tends to fly in the face of the basic principles of democracy. And yet, we're going applaud our leaders in Washington for perhaps finally making a right call. Not that they'll come up with sensible tax reform, but conducting the process in secret is definitely the right way to do it.

The tax code is full of special interests and any attempt to debate it in public is going to be met with too much resistance, even from people who would gladly accept system-wide reform. If each provision is put up for debate on its own, its supporters will fight for it tooth and nail, and the process quickly becomes gridlocked with no representative daring to offer up his constituents' interests in exchange for someone else's.

The idea that policy debates which involve a multitude of issues none of which seem touchable should be conducted in private is hardly new. It's the same procedure that was used to craft a little piece of law you may know as THE CONSTITUTION. Whole lot of third rail issues there, the big states vs. little states, taxes, individual rights, the national debt, slavery. Members of the Constitutional Convention knew that they couldn't go on record as supporting any small bit of a compromise, but also that the nation would accept the entire package. So, James Madison took notes, and they were kept sealed for 50 years.

Democracy does require transparency, but that is satisfied by the entirety of the law being presented for open debate. All the provisions and compromises are included within the four corners of the bill, and the vote will be televised on the CSPANs. All that's left out is the ability to yell at your congressman for any one particular item.

Is The Legal Market Recovery Resistant?

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Just when you thought there couldn't be more analysis about why the lack of lawyer jobs is no big deal, they pull some more in. Robert Anderson, a professor at Pepperdine Law (45.5% Employment Score, 35.7% Under-Employment Score, $46,680/yr (+9.0% vs 2012-13)) says the problems with the job market may be nothing more than the result of an aging lawyer population. From his blog Witnesseth:

Between 1980 and 2005, the median age of lawyers increased from 39 to 49. [...]

That means that the reported oversupply of lawyers may well result from demographic factors, rather than permanent changes in the legal market. The demographic factors, in turn, probably result from a combination of lawyers waiting longer to retire because of 401(k) accounts decimated during the financial crisis together with the "bulge" of baby boomers working their way through the system.

The bulge of baby boomers should be a very rare occurrence, one which the legal market maybe doesn't need to do much of anything to address. It sucks for people graduating while boomers are hanging on to their jobs, but any solutions would take too long, the problem will be gone before there's any affect. But what about that first explanation, that lawyers are staying in the workforce longer in order to recoup their losses from the recession? The market is back, baby:

 

The Dow hasn't just recovered, it's up nearly 12% over it's pre-recession high. If you add in extra income from staying on the job a few more years, lawyers who were delaying retirement because of the recession should now be much better off than they were before the crash. Why not just cash out now and get the demographics back in line? We suspect two reasons.

First, lawyers may be below-average investors. Many lawyers work in small shops that won't have a formal retirement program, so they're going to be handling their retirement savings themselves. And partners in firms big enough to have retirement programs are probably investing quite a bit beyond their 401(k)s. You know what happens when people who have a lot of faith in their intelligence but less information than professional investors try to play the stock market? They lose. People who play the market are also more prone to pulling their money out during a recession, as opposed to people with generic mutual funds who will tend to just let it ride. So, those lawyers who were too smart for their own good didn't get to reap the benefits of the recovery, and now they have to work an extra decade to make up their losses.

Second, there's the availability heuristic at work. The recession is still fresh in everyone's memory, and if you saw your retirement savings wiped out, it's going to be an especially strong memory. That means the goal posts for retirement have moved. You now need enough to retire on plus enough to cover the losses of another recession. It doesn't matter that retirees should be putting their investments into safer vehicles, or that another recession would be followed by another recovery, so you don't really need to save much extra to prep for it; cognitive biases don't care about that stuff. You're once bit and twice shy, and that's the end of that.

Back before the recession, and even during its early days, the pom-pom wavers talked about how law was recession proof, or at least resistant to the recession. Crimes still get committed, those people need lawyers, and there's more bankruptcies and divorces to make up for slower areas. Of course the proof of the pudding is in the tasting, and as it turns out if your clients have less money they can't pay you as much, and it's not all that simple to go from a deals practice to bankruptcy, or a T&E shop to divorce. There are some industries worse than law during a recession, and some areas of law are counter-cyclical, but whatever resistance the law has to recessions is pretty minimal.

But while the law may not resist recessions well, the number of older lawyers still in the work force indicates that law may be recovery resistant. Baby booms are rare, but recessions? They happen frequently enough that if the legal industry gets any worse at recovering, it might not move fast enough to be back on its feet before the next one hits.

Are we producing more or fewer JDs? Arkansas law prof's answer is sleight of time.

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From the "Leave law school alone!" crowd comes this Bloomberg Law interview with Stephen Sheppard, Associate Dean for Research and Faculty Development at the University of Arkansas School of Law, and a man who may be the inspiration for the character naming conventions used in the Harry Potter series.

We wanted to write about the ridiculous idea he puts forth that if law schools cared more about getting jobs for their students, only BigLaw and the government would exist. But, as we tried to suss out the logic behind that theory, we felt our heads getting too close to 'sploding and just gave up. Instead, we're going to analyze this gem:

As a percentage of either Americans or of university students or of college graduates, the number of people who enter law school has in fact fallen as a percentage whether you look at this from a window of 30 years or 20 years.

Let's first toss out the red herrings. Percentage of university students or college graduates entering law school is completely irrelevant. The comparisons that make sense are number of law school graduates compared to demand for legal services, legal industry jobs, and yes, the first comparison Sheppard made, the national population.

When trying to figure out if we're making too many or too few lawyers, comparison to the total population makes sense, though it doesn't give a final answer. As the federal government passes more laws of greater complexity, the need for lawyers per capita may go up. Policies such as the war on drugs may also increase the need for lawyers per capita. So might something such as growing wealth and home ownership among the middle class, which creates a greater need for lawyers to write wills, or a growing divorce rate and child custody suits. On the other hand there are variables that could decrease the needed lawyers per capita, such as electronic research tools making individual lawyers more effective at their jobs, or increased education among the population and access to online research and DIY guides allowing ordinary folks to handle many routine legal matters on their own. So, lawyers per capita only tells a part of the story, but it's still an important part.

Currently there is one law school grad for every 169 people. In 2010, the ratio was 1:174. [Flustercucked] Remember, Sheppard's claim is that the percentage of people is going down compared to previous decades. In 1993 the ratio was 1:163, and in 1983 it was 1:161. So, how do we rate Sheppard's claim? True.

And damned misleading. Let's take another look at his exact wording:

the number of people who enter law school has in fact fallen as a percentage whether you look at this from a window of 30 years or 20 years.

When we first heard this, it sounded to us like he meant "pick whatever time frame you want, doesn't matter, percentages are going down." The truth is that he means "the percentage is going down only if you make a 20 or 30 year comparison." If you pick any other time frame, the percentage has gone up.

In 2003 the ratio was 1:187. In 1973 the ratio was 1:190. And in 1963 it was an amazing 1:490. But wait, the "window of 30 years or 20 years" comment is even more misleading than that. From 1987-1990, we produced fewer lawyers than we do now, with ratios ranging from 1:171.1 to 1:174.1.

For Sheppard's statement to be true and not misleading, it would need to read something a bit more like this:

As a percentage of Americans, the number of people who enter law school has in fact fallen as a percentage whether you look at this from a window of 30 years or 20 years, but not 10 years, and not 40 years, and also not 23 to 26 years, or 15 years, or 28 years.

Impressed with Sheppard's bit of sleight of hand, we decided to give it a go ourselves. How did we do?

Whether you're talking about Pam Bondi or Megyn Kelly, women with JDs are total babes.

Page 8 of 342

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